12/02/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have been on a roll since a season-high three-game losing streak and will open a brief two-game homestand tonight versus the Washington Wizards at the Izod Center.
New Jersey has won three in a row, five of six and seven of its last nine games after dropping three in a row from November 8 - 12. The Nets just went 3-1 on a four-game road trip out west and wrapped up the swing with Sunday's 117-109 victory over the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center.
Devin Harris lit up the scoreboard for a career-high 47 points on 14-of-25 shooting and sank all 17 of his free throws. Harris also added eight assists and seven rebounds while Vince Carter finished with 28 points and five assists for the Nets, who got 14 points from Yi Jianlian. Harris is averaging 33.0 points and 7.0 assists during the current win streak.
The Nets will also host the Minnesota Timberwolves and are 3-4 at home.
Washington has lost two straight and seven of eight games, including Saturday's 102-98 setback to the Atlanta Hawks in the finale of a three-game homestand at the Verizon Center.
Antawn Jamison scored a game-high 26 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and handed out five assists for the Wizards, who went 1-2 on the residency. Jamison has posted eight consecutive double-doubles and owns 10 through the first 14 games of the 2008-09 campaign.
Caron Butler chipped in 21 points and 10 boards, as the Wizards fell to 2-12 on the season.
New Jersey recorded a 95-85 win over Washington on October 29 this season at the Verizon Center and has won two straight and 10 of the last 12 meetings.
The Wizards have dropped six in a row and 14 of 15 trips to the Meadowlands.
<< Hurricanes host Buckeyes in ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tonight's ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup at
the BankUnited Center features the Ohio State Buckeyes against the 21st-ranked
Miami-Florida Hurricanes.
The Buckeyes have played three games on the year, winning
<< Villanova visits Penn in clash of Philly area rivals
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Palestra, one of college basketball's
most historic venues, will be the site of tonight's non-conference clash
between local rivals Penn and Villanova.
Villanova has opened this season with six consecu
<< South Dakota faces tall task in bout with No. 7 Notre Dame
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Notre Dame Fighting are
set for what appears to be a serious mismatch, as they welcome the South
Dakota Coyotes to South Bend.
South Dakota competes at the Division II level. The team is 3
<< No. 18 Memphis entertains Marist
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Memphis Tigers and Marist Red Foxes will
collide at FedEx Forum tonight in non-conference action.
Marist is fresh off a hard-fought victory over New Hampshire on Saturday by a
63-61 final. Clearly, however,
Around FCS: Signature Moments >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You never know when the crucial play in an
NCAA Division I Football Championship playoff game will come. For some teams
in Saturday's first-round, the signature play was on the opening kickoff. For
others, it
Jazz, Kings meet up at ARCO Arena >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz aim to get back on the winning track Tuesday
when they arrive in Sacramento to face the struggling Kings at ARCO Arena.
The Jazz suffered a rare loss in Salt Lake City Saturday when New Jersey's
Devin H
Nuggets welcome Raptors to Pepsi Center >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Northwest Division-leading Denver Nuggets continue a
three-game homestand Tuesday when they welcome the Toronto Raptors into the
Pepsi Center.
The Nuggets, who are tied with Portland atop the Northwest, won the
76ers wrap up home-and-home set in Chicago >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The scuffling Philadelphia 76ers will try and right the
ship in the back end of a home-and-home set with the Chicago Bulls in the
Windy City on Tuesday.
Rookie star Derrick Rose scored 18 points, dished out a care
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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