05/09/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Its a very busy time on the track with NASCAR in full swing, IndyCars beginning their month-long stay at Indianapolis and Formula One returning to the track in Spain.
NASCAR
Nextel Cup
Dodge Avenger 500 - Darlington Raceway - Darlington, SC
Through 10 races and the season belongs to one team and in particular two of it's drivers - Nextel Cup Series points leader Jeff Gordon and 2006 Nextel Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson.
Gordon has put together a spectacular first 10 races and owns a 211-point lead over Johnson. Gordon's start, two wins and nine top-10s is one of the best starts since NASCAR went to the current points system in 1975. His 1691 points would put him just behind Cale Yarborough's 1977 season when the Hall-of-Fame driver posted five wins and nine top-10s. Yarborough's season would equate to 1775 points by today's scoring standards (he earned 1725 points in 1977).
All that being said, if the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" were to begin today, Gordon would not be the series leader. Johnson's four wins would move the No.48 Lowe's Chevrolet driver to the head of the class. He would begin the "Chase" with 20 more points than Gordon. His four wins and seven top-10s puts him in second place at the moment.
Together Gordon and Johnson have six wins and 16 top-10s for owner Rick Hendrick and Hendrick Motorsports. But they are not the only drivers for Hendrick Motorsports. A third driver, Kyle Busch, stands sixth overall and has also made a trip to Victory Lane (Bristol). The No.5 Chevy driver adds six more top-10s to the Hendrick Motorsports total. The fourth and weakest member of the Hendrick Motorsports family, Casey Mears, adds one more top-10 to the grand total of 23 top-10s.
Hendrick Motorsports also supplies engines to other Chevrolet teams who have accumulated a number of top-10s.
Hendrick Motorsports also raced well at Darlington in 2006, so trying to catch them this week might be problematic. In last year's spring Darlington race, won by Greg Biffle, Gordon, Johnson and Busch finished second, fourth and seventh, respectively.
While the Hendrick Motorsports team has been running on "all cylinders," Biffle and Roush Fenway Racing have been struggling, at least by Jack Roush standards. Matt Kenseth has been solid, sitting third overall, but the team has no other drivers in the top-10. This is the same team that placed five drivers in the "Chase" just a couple of years ago.
In that season (2005), Biffle finished second overall and in a tie with first- year teammate Carl Edwards. Edwards, looking like a hottest thing in NASCAR two years ago, sits 11th overall, but has no wins and just two top-10s. Other Roush drivers Jamie McMurray, David Ragan and Biffle all sit outside looking in at the "Chase."
With the regular season nearing its halfway point its time for Roush Racing to step up and be counted. For that matter the same can be said for every team except Hendrick, Joe Gibbs Racing and Richard Childress Racing.
The JGR team has done everything right except win. Stewart has been very strong for most of the season, but some mechanical failures and some bad luck have left him winless. Still, "Smoke" is in position to make the "Chase" and fight for a third title. But Stewart wants more than just be in contention, he wants to win races and his bad "racing luck" has him struggling to keep his cool at times resulting in trouble with other drivers and NASCAR officials. Stewart's teammate, Denny Hamlin, has also looked very good and despite his failure to win sits fourth in the championship and appearing to be a championship contender.
RCR has also been solid with drivers Kevin Harvick (2007 Daytona 500 winner), Jeff Burton (one win) and Clint Bowyer.
As the season nears the Nextel Cup All-Star Challenge, its traditional mid- season celebration, someone better find out how to compete on a weekly basis with Hendrick Motorsports otherwise its going to be a very long season for a lot of teams and their loyal fans.
Busch
Diamond Hill Plywood 200 - Darlington Raceway - Darlington, SC
While there have been seven different winners in the series, there is no championship race at this points. Through 11 events, Carl Edwards holds a stunning 402-point lead over last year's record-setting winner Kevin Harvick. He has an even bigger lead over the first full-time Busch Series competitor - Dave Blaney. His margin there is 510 points and climbing.
Blaney is the one Toyota-powered driver who has made it work at this level. He has four top-10s to help him secure his third place in the standings.
Edwards figures to post a solid result this week where he finished eighth last year behind winner Denny Hamlin. Last year's race was dominated by "Buschwhackers" who collected the top nine positions.
Hamlin came out in first courtesy of a quick pit stop by his Joe Gibbs Racing crew on lap 115. He was followed by Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Greg Biffle and Mark Martin. Hamlin still led the field to the restart with 27 laps to go, but a Reed Sorenson spin out one lap later led to three cautions in a row. Some big names were part of the interruptions included those of: Edwards, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. As Hamlin maintained or expanded his margin slightly on the restart, one last caution flag flew with seven laps to go for a crash between brothers Tim and Jay Sauter.
When things finally got back under way there were just two laps to go and Hamlin pulled away from Kenseth. Hamlin comfortably crossed the finish line followed by Kenseth, McMurray, Martin and Biffle in a single-file line.
Darlington is a hard enough track to race on, but when Nextel Cup drivers compete against the younger, less experienced Busch Series drivers, the results are usually like we saw last year with the veteran drivers in complete control. Expect another year of the same.
INDYCARS
Indianapolis Pole Day - Indianapolis Motor Speedway - Indianapolis, IN
It may be the biggest IndyCar race of the season, even the biggest race of any kind this year, but the Indianapolis 500 will be dominated by the same drivers who have been in control all season.
Penske Racing will put Helio Castroneves and defending champion Sam Hornish Jr. in position to win. Target Chip Ganassi Racing will have Dan Wheldon and Scott Dixon vying with the two Penske drivers for the win. And Michael Andretti will have Andretti Green Racing working as hard as possible to stay close to the two super teams.
The first step in winning the 2007 Indianapolis 500 is pole qualifying. The pole will be determined on Saturday although qualifying will continue for three more sessions.
Qualifying doesn't always equate to winning, but putting up a good performance under the pressure of the four-lap format and in front of millions of fans does announce one's intention to be a factor in the race.
In 2006, Hornish Jr. won the pole and the race. It was his first win and Roger Penske's 14th Indy 500 victory, but it wasn't an easy one.
Dan Wheldon was the early leader and seemed in control of the race. Under a record-setting 96-degree sun, Wheldon held leads as big as 13 seconds through 50 laps. At the mid-point of the 200-lap event, Wheldon's lead had slimmed to under one second, but he was still the man to beat. Wheldon's Target Chip Ganassi teammate Scott Dixon took the lead on lap 125 and Hornish Jr.. also made a move around Wheldon. Dixon slid back as both Hornish Jr. and Wheldon retook the top spots a few laps later.
Green-flag pit stops beginning on lap 146 set up a dramatic finish. On Hornish Jr.'s pit stop, he pulled away from the fuel man before the fuel nozzle was fully removed breaking the fuel line. The lengthy stop left him in seventh place. Worse, IndyCar officials penalized him with a "drive-thru" penalty for leaving his pit box.
The penalty would take away almost any chance for Hornish Jr. and owner Penske to win the race. He had just one hope, to refuel just before the race restarted and go to the checkered flag without stopping again.
Wheldon resumed his race leadership as the field went back to green on lap 162. with teammate Dixon just behind but both would have to make one more stop. When everything got sorted out, Michael Andretti was the race leader with Dixon, Hornish Jr. and Wheldon just behind.
The green flag dropped with four laps to go. Michael Andretti led into the first corner, but his son Marco swooped past him on the outside for the lead. Hornish Jr. also got past Michael Andretti and on lap 198 took a shot in turn three for the lead. But Marco got to the corner first and Hornish Jr. fell back about six lengths.
"I thought that it was over when I didn't get by him in (turn) three," said Hornish Jr.
The two-time IndyCar Series champion gathered up his Penske Honda and made one last effort. He closed onto Marco Andretti bumper as they entered the final two turns. Marco was still ahead as they came out of turn four and could see the finish line and the last "yard of bricks."
Hornish Jr. made one last move on the inside and got alongside Marco Andretti as they neared the checkered flag. Hornish Jr. edged Marco to the finish line and earned his first Indy 500 victory.
The fun begins this Saturday with pole qualifying.
FORMULA ONE
Spanish Grand Prix - Circuit de Catalunya - Barcelona, Spain
After an extended break, the Formula One Series returns to action this weekend with the first of the European races at the Circuit de Catalunya for the Spanish Grand Prix.
When we last left the track, Felipe Massa was winning and dominating the Bahrain GP. He started on the pole and won by 2.3 seconds over Lewis Hamilton. Kimi Raikkonen finished third and Fernando Alonso fifth to throw the championship into complete chaos. Through three events, the championship lead is a three-way tie between two-time World Champion Alonso, Raikkonen and rookie Hamilton. Add in Massa just five points behind and the race is more wide open than it has been since before the "Michael Schumacher era" began.
Now its on to the Spanish Grand Prix where Alonso will be both the hometown fan favorite, the defending champion and the betting favorite. The Spaniard delighted the fans in 2006 winning easily by 18.503 seconds en route to his first win in front of the home fans.
Alonso set a torrid early pace in his Renault and after a dozen laps held more than 10 seconds over Schumacher. After a round of green-flag pit stops, Alonso was still the pace setter. Alonso made his final pit stop on lap 40 leaving Schumacher with a 10 second lead, nice, but not nearly enough to keep him in the lead after his final stop.
The German came in on lap 46 giving the lead back to Alonso and sending a roar throughout the stands as they realized the dream of a Spaniard winning the Spanish Grand Prix was within sight. Alonso continued to click off laps in the one minute, 17-second bracket, better than Schumacher could muster. Only a mechanical failure or a huge mistake would halt Alonso. His margin was 15.7 seconds with 10 laps remaining. With no mistakes by Alonso, the final 10 laps were a celebration for Alonso and his fans as he took the checkered flag well in front of his rival.
"The race in Bahrain was not great for me," the 25-year-old Alonso said, "But we had a strong test at this track earlier this week and we got to understand how the car performs at the Circuit de Catalunya and the changes to the layout."
That's bad news for the competition because a motivated Alonso, in his new McLaren, is tough to beat.
<< Nash, Suns even series with Spurs
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve Nash, playing with a bandage on his nose
after a horrific collision on Sunday, scored 20 points and had 16 assists,
pacing the Suns to a 101-81 win over San Antonio, evening their Western
Confere
<< Bonds within 10 HR of Aaron, but Giants fall to Mets
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Lo Duca went 3-for-4 as the Mets
overshadowed Barry Bonds' 745th career homer with a 4-1 victory over San
Francisco in the middle contest of a three-game set at AT&T Park.
New York starter
<< Clark leads D'Backs past Phillies
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Clark's home run in the seventh inning,
Eric Byrnes' two RBI and strong Arizona pitching combined to lead the
Diamondbacks to a 3-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field.
Rookie
<< Playoff Perfect: LeBron, Cavs down Nets
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - LeBron James continued to amaze in the
playoffs with 36 points and 12 assists, as the Cavaliers remained perfect in
this year's postseason with a 102-92 victory over New Jersey in Game 2 of
their E
RSL still searching for first win >>
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Rocky Mountain Cup's second edition
will take place on Thursday as Real Salt Lake visits Dick's Sporting Goods
Park to meet the Colorado Rapids with Real still searching for its first win
of the
Sharapova withdraws from Rome >>
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - U.S. Open champion Maria Sharapova announced
her withdrawal from next week's French Open tune-up in Rome.
The 20-year-old Russian star will miss the Italian Open due to a right
shoulder injury. The
Jazz try to take 2-0 lead over Golden State >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fourth-seeded Utah Jazz try to take a 2-0 lead over
the No. 8 Golden State Warriors, as the teams meet tonight at EnergySolutions
Arena in Game 2 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinals series.
In the ser
Devil Rays try to reverse fortunes against Orioles >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles hope to continue their mastery of the
Tampa Bay Devil Rays this evening, when the two AL East cellar-dwellers
continue a three-game set at Camden Yards.
Baltimore won two of three in Tampa ea
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting