05/09/2008 - (Baseball Betting) - Citizens of San Diego may be renowned for their laid-back and easy-going approach to life, but the patience of the hometown Padres' brass has got to be wearing thin with the way the team has performed over the past three weeks.
After being swept by the Atlanta Braves to conclude a miserable nine-game road trip, the Padres have now lost 17 times in their last 21 outings. That unwanted record is the franchise's worst over that span of games since San Diego also went 4-17 during a portion of the 2003 season, when the club placed at the bottom of the National League standings with a 64-98 overall mark.
The Padres seem on their way to a similar horrid showing in 2008. Entering Friday's play, San Diego holds the worst record in the majors at 12-23 and hasn't strung together back-to-backs wins since April 13-15.
With each passing loss, it's become increasingly evident that some segment of change is going to be necessary if the Padres still have aspirations of competing with the likes of Arizona and Los Angeles in the rugged NL West. While San Diego's never been an offensive juggernaut since moving into spacious Petco Park in 2004, the team usually compensated for its lineup shortcomings with exceptional pitching depth. That no longer appears to be the case, as the rotation members have struggled to find consistency behind ace Jake Peavy and a once-bulletproof bullpen has shown a number of chinks in the armor over the season's first month.
Manager Bud Black took one step towards finding a solution this past week, when the second-year skipper bumped Justin Germano from a starting role and into the bullpen and inserted long reliever Wil Ledezma into the rotation. The initial results were encouraging, as Ledezma limited Atlanta to one unearned run over four innings in his first season start on Thursday.
The Padres' biggest problems still remain on offense, as the team ranks last in the majors in both batting average (.232) and on-base percentage (.304) and is tied with San Francisco for the fewest runs (117) in baseball.
The weakest link on the league's weakest unit has been aging center fielder Jim Edmonds, who's batting a paltry .178 with one home run in 90 at-bats. A possible sign of the coaching staff's waning confidence in the injury-prone 37-year-old came during Wednesday's 5-2 loss to the Braves, when Edmonds was lifted in favor of Rule 5 draftee Callix Crabbe to bat in the ninth inning.
Edmonds' startling lack of production has lent to speculation that the Padres may soon cut ties with the eight-time Gold Glove winner, although the organization would have to eat nearly $5 million in guaranteed salary if Edmonds is released. San Diego does have a veteran alternative at the position in Jody Gerut, who's batting .308 with five home runs at Triple-A Portland.
Another possible answer could come from top prospect Chase Headley, a 24-year- old switch-hitting outfielder who's been tearing up Pacific Coast League pitching as of late. A second-round selection in the 2005 draft, Headley has batted .463 (19-for-41) over his last 10 games with Portland to raise his season average to .304.
WELCOME BACK
Pitcher Shawn Estes made his first major league appearance in more than two years when the oft-injured left-hander took over for Ledezma in Thursday's game. Estes worked 1 2/3 innings and was charged with allowing two runs, both of which were unearned due to a costly error by Crabbe at second base.
Estes last pitched in the majors on April 5, 2006 and made just one start for the Padres that year before having to undergo Tommy John surgery on his elbow. The 35-year-old returned to competitive action in June of last season, compiling an 0-2 record and a 4.45 earned run average over 28 1/3 innings pitched at three stops in the minors.
The veteran hurler was brought back by San Diego on a minor-league deal during the offseason but failed to win a roster spot in spring training. Estes pitched well at Triple-A Portland, where he went 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA in six starts, and was promoted to the big club when the Padres placed reliever Kevin Cameron on the disabled list Thursday.
"It was exciting," Estes told the team's official site when asked about his long-awaited return to the majors. "I had the adrenaline going. I don't think I felt my legs for six pitches,"
Estes broke into the big leagues with San Francisco in 1995 and had his best season with the Giants in 1997, when he amassed a 19-5 record and a 3.18 ERA and earned a spot on the NL All-Star team. He owns a 99-90 all-time mark over 275 career appearances (273 starts) while playing for seven different teams.
STILL STUCK ON 349
Career victory No. 350 for Greg Maddux remains an elusive milestone for the legendary Padres pitcher, who failed on his fourth attempt to record the feat during Sunday' 10-3 loss at Florida. The four-time NL Cy Young winner was tagged for five runs (4 earned) and 11 hits by the upstart Marlins in 5 2/3 innings of work.
Since registering his 349th career win at Los Angeles on April 13, Maddux has gone 0-3 with a 5.54 ERA in four starts. The 42-year-old's next attempt at the benchmark victory will come on Saturday against Colorado.
Only eight pitchers in major league history have amassed 350 all-time wins, with Roger Clemens the last to accomplish the feat on July 2, 2007. The embattled Clemens ended his career with 354 victories.
WHO'S HOT
First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is one of the few Padres swinging a hot bat. The left-handed slugger hit safely in all nine games of the road trip and batted .375 (15-for-40) with four home runs and eight RBI over the course of the trek. He leads San Diego with a .307 average, eight homers and 25 RBI for the season.
WHO'S NOT
Left-handed relief specialist Joe Thatcher fell to 0-4 on the year after giving up the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning in Thursday's 5-4 loss to Atlanta. The Indiana State alum has surrendered 13 runs in 17 1/3 innings over his 16 appearances in 2008, while opposing batters have hit .357 against him so far this season.
Shortstop Khalil Greene went just 5-for-30 (.167) on the recent road trip, dropping his season average to an anemic .209. The defensive whiz also has just one homer in 129 at-bats after slugging a career-high 27 a year ago.
ON DECK
The Padres will square off against an old nemesis when they return home on Friday, as the division-rival Colorado Rockies visit Petco Park for a three- game weekend set. Colorado has won seven of its last encounters with San Diego, including that memorable 9-8, 13-inning thriller at Coors Field last October that propelled the Rockies into the 2007 postseason.
Peavy (4-1, 2.22) will go head-to-head with Aaron Cook (5-1, 2.40) in a battle of aces in the series opener, with Maddux (2-3, 4.09) opposing youngster Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2, 5.82) on Saturday. Greg Reynolds is slated to make his major league debut for the Rockies in Sunday's finale, while Chris Young (2-3, 4.31) takes the mound for the home team.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers SPORTS TRASH TALK
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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