SEC - Florida Really the Team to Beat?

Cfootball Betting Lines

08/25/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everywhere you look, it's Georgia this and Georgia that. The whole world is suddenly in love with the Bulldogs, and both polls even have them in the number one spot.

Mark it down: They will not defeat the Gators when the two teams square off on November 1. In fact, Urban Meyer's team will be the only undefeated team in all of college football this season.

The league as a whole was as dominant as ever in '07, racking up 37 wins in 47 FBS non-conference games, not to mention a 28-19 ATS record. The SEC is now 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS in bowl games the last two seasons, including a pair of national champions in LSU and Florida.

Time now to break down the number one conference in the land with odds to win the division, league and the BCS title game.

SEC PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

EAST DIVISION

1) FLORIDA (4-5, 1-1, 11-2) - A recent rash of injuries will test the depth of the most talented team in the country.

Offense - The Gators were the only FBS club last year with a rushing and passing TD in every game. They also set a league record by scoring on 54.6 % of their drives, not to mention finishing first in the nation on third-down conversions. Imagine what they'll accomplish with the additions of RB Emmanuel Moody and WR Carl Moore to an already outstanding offense.

Defense - Florida has ranked first in the league vs. the run the last two years. The defense also compiled 81.5 tackles for loss in '07 with just two returning starters. The lone problem last season was a weak secondary due to the losses of All-Americans Reggie Nelson and Ryan Smith. Look for massive improvements vs. the pass despite injuries to a pair of safeties in fall camp.

Outlook -A perfect 12-0 record (13 wins after the SEC title contest) will lift Urban Meyer's team to the BCS Championship game vs. Missouri. The Gators, who are just 3-13 ATS as an away favorite over the last six years, are the pick to be crowned national champs at the generous odds of 11-2.

2) GEORGIA (5-4, 2-1, 5-1) - The Bulldogs are 5-1 to win the BCS Title (Florida 11-2), but the Gators are the 1-1 choice to win the SEC, while the Dawgs are 2-1.

Offense - Georgia has a pair of Heisman hopefuls in Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford. Moreno is the real deal, but Stafford's TD-INT ratio in the SEC was just 11/8 despite a 19/10 overall mark. Trinton Sturdivant's season-ending knee injury will pose a major problem against the likes of Florida, LSU and Arizona State.

Defense - Even though only three starters returned last year, the Bulldogs ranked second in SEC play in scoring, and third in total defense. They are as good as any team in the nation vs. the run, but must improve against the pass as opposing league QBs hit on 60% of their throws last year.

Outlook - The hype will fade with a September loss to Arizona State, followed by two more defeats to Florida and Auburn. The Dawgs, who are 3-0 ATS as a road dog the last three years, will finish with nine wins, six in the SEC.

3) SOUTH CAROLINA (8-1, 20-1, 60-1) - The Gamecocks were a top 10 team in mid- October, but lost their final five games to finish 6-6.

Offense - One would think high school quarterbacks would be knocking down Steve Spurrier's door the last few years, but that hasn't been the case. Now it looks as if Tommy Beecher (25 career attempts) will get the nod. If the offensive line ever becomes a cohesive unit, the Gamecocks offense could surprise.

Defense - Injuries ravaged what could have been one heck of a unit. The "D" ended up eighth in league play in both scoring and total defense, but a major turnaround is expected as the walking wounded return. Remember, prior to the free fall the second half of the year, the Gamecocks were one of the best in the country vs. the pass, allowing a 47% completion rate after the first five games.

Outlook - If Beecher is the answer, South Carolina will be a major player in the SEC. If not, expect a 4-4 record and eight wins total. The Gamecocks are 7-2-1 ATS as a road dog under Spurrier.

4) TENNESSEE (4-1, 9-1, 30-1) - It's been 10 years since Tennessee's undefeated season, also the last time the Volunteers were SEC champions.

Offense - Despite increased emphasis on the pass last year, the Vols actually averaged one yard per game less through the air. Still, the changeover from Erik Ainge to Jonathan Crompton could cause problems, as the junior doesn't possess a very accurate arm. Crompton has also thrown six picks in 78 career attempts.

Defense - From 1998 to 2005, the defense did not allow opposing teams to rush for more than 3.7 yards per carry. The last two years that number has risen above 4.0 each time, and now four members of last year's front seven must be replaced.

Outlook - Even though the Vols won the East, they were outscored and outgained in SEC play. Eight wins (four in the conference) are all they will achieve. Tennessee is 10-3 ATS as a road favorite the last six years.

5) KENTUCKY (20-1, 50-1, 100-1) - The Wildcats are coming off consecutive 8-5 seasons. Unfortunately, the '08 version will be a shell of those clubs.

Offense - Even though 1,000-yard rusher Rafael Little has graduated, expect the 'Cats to pound out the yards on the ground with a quartet of solid backs. On the other hand, the QB position goes from a college superstar to a sophomore with six career throws.

Defense - Kentucky has never been known for its defense. In fact, the team ranked last in league play in scoring last season, giving up 34.5 ppg. Help is on the way as the Wildcats return seven of their top eight tacklers. Still, the unit must improve dramatically since the offensive numbers will shrink.

Outlook - The 'Cats do not have to face LSU and Auburn. That will help them from completely going in the tank. The out-of-conference schedule will provide three wins, so look for a 5-7 mark from a squad that is 7-3 ATS as a home dog the last three years.

6) VANDERBILT (30-1, 50-1, 25-1 Field) - Last year was supposed to be Vandy's first bowl trip since '82. Four straight November losses ended those dreams.

Offense - The race for the starting QB spot is still wide open, but it might not matter who wins the job as only two other offensive starters return. The Commodores' o-line goes from bringing back 90 career starts to three.

Defense - Last season was the first year since '99 that Vandy's run "D" allowed less than 4.0 ypc. Unfortunately, five starters from the front seven must be replaced. Look for the defensive backfield to regress with weaker units up front.

Outlook - Victories over Rice and Duke are the only two games Vandy could win this season and even those aren't givens. The Commodores are 13-4 ATS as an away dog, but just 4-9 as a home dog the last four years.

WEST DIVISION

1) AUBURN (5-4, 7-2, 35-1) - The 423 yards accumulated in the bowl game vs. Clemson says the new offense under Tony Franklin will work.

Offense - Auburn came into last season with an o-line that had only 20 career starts. Combine that with the lackluster play of Brandon Cox, and the Tigers were only able to score 20 ppg in SEC play. In comes Franklin from Troy and the "O" racks up its highest yardage output of the season in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Look for a huge jump in scoring with a line that brings in 76 career starts.

Defense - The Tigers "D" ranked fourth in league play in scoring and total defense. The secondary allowed the fewest number of passing TDs in the conference. Auburn has always been strong on this side of the ball and that will continue in '08.

Outlook - Auburn's only loss will come to Ole Miss. The Tigers are the value play to be BCS champions among all long shots at the hefty price of 35-1. They are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite the last two years, but 6-1 as road dogs the last four.

2) LSU (7-4, 4-1, 20-1) - What can LSU do for an encore? The Tigers have been one of the most consistent teams this decade and shouldn't fall too far off the map.

Offense - Just because Matt Flynn and Jacob Hester are gone doesn't mean LSU's offense will go in the tank. Replacements are available, especially at the RB position. The Tigers bring back an outstanding o-line to help with the maturation process of the young and inexperienced quarterbacks.

Defense - LSU's defense has always been solid regardless of the quality and amount of players lost. The Tigers have not allowed over 20 ppg since '01 ,so even with just five returning starters, don't think for a minute that this unit will crumble.

Outlook -The Tigers must travel to Auburn and Florida, two places where they lost back in '06. Add in a defeat at the hands of Georgia and it will be a three-loss season in Baton Rouge for the first time since '04. LSU is 6-17-3 ATS in the SEC but 10-2 ATS in non-conference affairs the last three years.

3) ALABAMA (5-2, 12-1, 55-1) - The Tide outscored its FBS opponents by an average margin of 25-23. Improvement is expected in Nick Saban's second year.

Offense - John Parker Wilson saw his production sink in '07, finishing eighth in the conference with a 115 quarterback rating. Nevertheless, help is on the way in the form of freshmen receivers Julio Jones and B.J. Scott. The o-line and tight end positions bring a veteran presence to an offense poised for a breakout season.

Defense - The LB position is in disarray and the d-line lost its best player in Wallace Gilberry. Another area of concern is at the cornerback spot, where both starters are under six feet.

Outlook - This team is still a year away from posing a threat to the big boys. An 8-4 mark with four SEC wins should be all that's available in '08. Here's a frightening statistic: Alabama is 2-14 ATS as a home favorite the last three years.

4) OLE MISS (15-1, 35-1, 25-1 Field) - After going 14-32 the last four seasons, look for the Rebels to turn it around in Houston Nutt's first year in Oxford.

Offense - Former Texas quarterback Jevan Sneed takes over for Seth Adams, and Enrique Davis will emerge as the number one option out of the backfield giving Ole Miss two legitimate offensive threats for the first time in years. In addition, the o-line is one of the most underrated in the country.

Defense - Defensive linemen Greg Hardy and Peria Jerry are sidelined indefinitely after sustaining injuries this fall. The coaching staff is hopeful the pair will return for the start of the SEC season on September 20. If healthy, this will be one of the most improved defenses in the nation.

Outlook - The talent level at Ole Miss is the highest it's been since the days of Eli Manning. The prognosis for the season is solid at 7-5 (4-4 in league play) for a team that's 2-7-2 ATS the last four years as a home favorite.

5) MISSISSIPPI STATE (10-1, 45-1, 25-1 Field) - The Bulldogs pulled it together last year with an 8-5 mark, including a win in the Liberty Bowl over UCF.

Offense - Running back Anthony Dixon rushed for over 1,000 yards, and the Bulldogs averaged over 20 ppg for the first time since 2000. Unfortunately, three key o-line starters are gone so the offense could return to its usual form.

Defense - There's no denying the strength of the team is this unit, as the "D" held four league opponents to 14 points or less. The secondary, which returns all four starters, is the heart and soul of the defense.

Outlook - Last year was a magical season with four wins by a touchdown or less. The Bulldogs won't be so lucky this year, as they revert to five wins, two coming in the SEC. They are just 2-9 ATS at home the last two seasons.

6) ARKANSAS (15-1, 45-1, 150-1) - Transition is the name of the game in Fayetteville, as Bobby Petrino and his pro-style offense takes over for Houston Nutt.

Offense - The power of RBs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones will be replaced with a passing attack not seen here since the days of Clint Stoerner in the late 1990s. It will be interesting to see how the offensive line, especially the three seniors, adjusts to the turnaround from run blocking to pass protection.

Defense - Not only does the secondary lose all four starters, the defense is without its top six tacklers from '07. Additionally, the entire unit has looked lost throughout fall camp. Last season's "D" was the second-worst in school history in both scoring and total defense. This year's version will be even worse.

Outlook - There's a distinct possibility the Razorbacks will win just four or five games this season. Don't be shocked if UL-Monroe upsets another SEC team on the road when the Warhawks come to Little Rock on September 6. The Hogs, who are 7-2 ATS as a road dog the last three years, will tie MSU for last in the West with two victories.

WEEK ONE TOP PLAY

There are just eight games played this Thursday and Friday but one stands way above the rest: SMU at Rice.

The Mustangs are a team in transition as June Jones comes over from Hawaii after a 12-1 season. He'll find life on the mainland is a little harder, especially with the lack of effective talent down in Dallas.

Rice will be one of the most improved teams in the country after last season's disappointing 3-9 campaign. The Owls have won five of the last six over SMU and have taken the last nine at Rice Stadium. My numbers have them a 9.5-point favorite, and the line is only 3.5.

Take Rice minus the points.