Rail Trip out to defend Hollywood Gold Cup
Horseracing Betting Lines
07/07/2010 - Inglewood, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rail Trip will take on six challengers on Saturday in defense of his title in the $500,000 Hollywood Gold Cup at Hollywood Park. The five-year-old gelding will carry highweight of 123 pounds in the 1 1/4-mile race.
Owned by Jay Em Ess Stable, Rail Trip will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano for the third straight start and the pair will break from post six. Jose Valdivia, Jr. was aboard the gelding last year in winning the Gold Cup.
Rail Trip, trained by Ron Ellis, is coming off victories this year in the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap and the Californian. No horse has swept those two races and the Gold Cup since Eleven Stitches in 1981.
"The nice thing about him is that he's almost turned into a mile and a quarter horse," noted Ellis. "He knows where the running starts and he's really strong down the lane. This year he's bigger, stronger and heavier. He's matured a lot. He's a real versatile horse and that's going to come in handy at some point.
"When he won the Gold Cup, he was at the end of a lot of races. This year, by purpose, we wanted to bring him in and point for the Breeders' Cup and have him ready for the second half of the year."
Rail Trip is within a few dollars of becoming a millionaire. The five-year-old has won eight of 11 career starts and earned $967,790.
A win on Saturday would make him just the third horse to claim the Gold Cup more than once. He would join Native Diver (1965-67) and Lava Man (2005-07), who each won the race three straight times.
Last year's runner-up, Tres Borrachos will try to get the best of Rail Trip for the third straight race. The five-year-old gelding was fourth in the Mervyn LeRoy and seventh in the Californian.
Trained by co-owner Beau Greely, Tres Borrachos will start from post six with Victor Espinoza again in the saddle.
"He's got ability, he's been training well, there's nothing wrong with him and he's got a good record at Hollywood Park," said Greely.
Winless since taking an allowance race at Hollywood in May of last year, the gelding has banked $602,682 while winning three of 26 lifetime starts.
Here is the full field for the Gold Cup in post position order: Cigar Man, Joe Talamo; Compari, Mike Smith; Awesome Gem, David Flores; Richard's Kid, Martin Garcia; Tres Borrachos, Victor Espinoza; Rail Trip, Rafael Bejarano and Tap It Light, Tyler Baze.
Post-time for the race is set for 7:35 p.m. (et).
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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