11/28/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - First, folks weren't sure if New England Patriots Matt Cassel was suited to be the backup to Tom Brady.
Then, when Brady was knocked out for the year with a knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 season, they were skeptical about whether he would perform well as the starter.
Two weeks ago, when Cassel threw for 400 yards and played extremely well in an overtime loss to the Jets, league observers wondered if he would ever be able to follow it up.
And now, one Sunday after Cassel became the fifth quarterback since the AFL- NFL merger to post back-to-back 400-yard games, the masses are certainly not convinced he'll be able to do something similar against the NFL's best defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be the opponent for Cassel and the Pats in Week 13 at Gillette Stadium, and the challenge will be the biggest of the quarterback's surprisingly strong season to date.
The Steelers rank No. 1 in the NFL in total defense (235.4 yards per game), scoring defense (14.5 points per game), passing defense (168.8 yards per game), rushing defense (66.5 yards per game), yards allowed per rush (2.9), touchdowns allowed (15), and rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (1).
Mike Tomlin's team is also 8-3 after last Thursday's 27-10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals, good for a one-game lead over the second-place Ravens in the AFC North.
In less firm control of their playoff fate are Cassel and the Patriots, even after last week's statement-making 48-28 win at Miami. New England comes into Week 13 a game back of the Jets in the AFC East, and also on the outside looking in on the Wild Card race.
A win on Sunday would be almost certain to improve that standing, and would also provide further evidence that Cassel is indeed ready for his close-up.
The former backup to Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart is a combined 60-of-94 with 815 yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception in his past two games, posting passer ratings of better than 100 in both contests and also rushing for 76 yards over that span.
In the Miami win, Cassel joined Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Phil Simms and ex-Titan Billy Volek as the only players since 1970 to record consecutive 400-yard passing days.
SERIES HISTORY
The Steelers have a 12-7 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Patriots, but have lost two consecutive regular season games to New England including a 34-13 rout at Gillette Stadium in Week 14 of last season. The Steelers last defeated the Pats in 2004, at Heinz Field against a then-6-0 New England team. Pittsburgh is 0-2 in New England since last winning there in 1997.
The teams have also met in the playoffs four times since 1996, with the Patriots winning a 1996 AFC Divisional Playoff (28-3), the Steelers returning the favor with a victory in a 1997 AFC Divisional Playoff (7-6), and New England prevailing in the 2001 (24-17) and 2004 (41-27) AFC Championships. The 1997, 2001, and 2004 meetings were all played in Pittsburgh.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a 8-9 mark against the Steelers, including 5-1 since coming to New England. Pittsburgh's Tomlin is 0-1 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
The run-first Pittsburgh offense heads into yet another game facing a question mark about oft-injured running back Willie Parker (485 rushing yards, 4 TD), who sustained a knee injury against the Bengals last Thursday and is regarded as questionable for New England. Parker has suited up just three times in Pittsburgh's last eight games, meaning backup Mewelde Moore (432 rushing yards, 31 receptions, 6 TD) is more than familiar with the role of lead back. Moore carried 15 times for 56 yards after Parker left the lineup against the Bengals, also catching four passes for 41 yards out of the backfield. Gary Russell (48 rushing yards, 1 TD) would be the change-of-pace back if Moore is Sunday's starter. The key to the Pittsburgh passing game is the ability of a poor pass-blocking offensive line to keep quarterback Ben Roethlisberger upright. When "Big Ben" has time to throw, wideouts Hines Ward (54 receptions, 5 TD), Santonio Holmes (39 receptions, 2 TD), and tight end Heath Miller (25 receptions, 2 TD) are the primary beneficiaries. Roethlisberger experienced a rare sack-less outing against Cincinnati last time out, allowing him to connect with Holmes for five balls and 84 yards, and Miller four times for 44 yards with a touchdown. The Steelers o-line gave up 35 sacks through its first 10 contests, however.
New England hasn't been a great pass-rushing team this season, managing just 21 sacks on the year, and five of those belong to injured outside linebacker Adalius Thomas. The men responsible for pressuring Roethlisbeger will be outside linebackers Mike Vrabel (39 tackles, 3 sacks) and Pierre Woods (31 tackles, 1 sack), with ends Richard Seymour (43 tackles, 7 sacks) and Ty Warren (38 tackles, 2 sacks) also looking to find their way to the backfield. Seymour and Vrabel both had sacks of Miami's Chad Pennington last Sunday. Ellis Hobbs (34 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) and Deltha O'Neal (25 tackles, 3 INT) figure to be matched on Ward and Holmes, with safeties James Sanders (48 tackles, 1 INT) and Brandon Meriweather (51 tackles, 4 INT) helping out as well. New England is allowing opponents to complete 64.4 percent of their passes, which ranks just 26th in the league, and is 18th against the pass overall (215.8 yards per game). The Patriots rank a solid 13th against the run as Week 13 begins (100.2 yards per game), and come off a week in which they held the Dolphins to just 62 yards on the ground. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork (45 tackles, 1 sack) and inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (62 tackles) and Jerod Mayo (89 tackles) have primary responsibility in slowing the un. Wilfork was credited with four tackles in Miami last week.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
Cassel's passing exploits of the past two weeks have also spelled big things for his main targets. Among the wide receivers, Wes Welker (80 receptions, 1 TD) and Jabar Gaffney (28 receptions, 2 TD) have both been extremely productive, with Welker coming into Sunday with three consecutive 100-yard games under his belt, and Gaffney having gone for 80+ in his two most recent contests. Randy Moss (54 receptions, 8 TD), who had been quiet apart from a late game-tying touchdown against the Jets, made up for that with a huge eight-catch, 125-yard, three-touchdown day in Miami last Sunday. Tight end Ben Watson (20 receptions, 1 TD) has also developed as a frequent over-the-middle target for Cassel (2615 passing yards, 13 TD, 8 INT). The New England running game has obviously taken a back seat given the pass-heavy approach of the past two weeks, but veteran Kevin Faulk (372 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 4 TD) has remained a major component of the attack. Faulk totaled 105 yards (53 rushing, 52 receiving) and a touchdown on 14 total touches last week. Rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis (272 rushing yards, 5 TD) scored a touchdown in the win, giving him a score in five of six appearances this year. The o-line seeking to keep Cassel out of harm's way on Sunday has allowed a bloated 35 sacks on the year, including two last week.
There isn't much more to say about the Steelers defense than that it has fewer flaws than any other unit in the league. The pass rush, led by outside linebackers LaMarr Woodley (43 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 1 INT) and James Harrison (70 tackles, 12 sacks, 1 INT), has terrorized opposing quarterbacks and has helped cover up whatever weaknesses and injury problems the club has experienced in the secondary. Ike Taylor (48 tackles) and William Gay (27 tackles) could be the cornerbacks matched with Moss and Welker on Sunday, and safeties Troy Polamalu (49 tackles, 5 INT) and Ryan Clark (56 tackles) will have to lend support over the top. Within the stifling front seven, end Brett Keisel (knee) will not play against the Patriots but all of the other principles will be available. Inside linebackers James Farrior (81 tackles, 2 sacks) and Larry Foote (40 tackles, 1.5 sacks), along with nose tackle Casey Hampton (13 tackles) and end Aaron Smith (36 tackles, 4 sacks), will be the players seeking to control the New England run game. The Steelers held the Bengals to 43 ground yards on 20 carries last time out.
FANTASY FOCUS
Apart from the playmaking defense, there isn't a member of the Steelers that can be considered a can't-miss fantasy option, though certainly Roethlisberger, Parker or Moore, top receivers Ward and Holmes, and tight end Miller have scoring potential. Whoever opens at running back figures to get enough touches to make them worth starting, and of the others, Roethlisberger and Ward are the most consistent numbers-producers. Kicker Jeff Reed doesn't get a ton of chances, but generally makes good on those he does.
Those who have failed to start Cassel the past two weeks have been kicking themselves, and though another 400-yard day is a long shot, he should be able to put up some passing yards on the still-suspect Steelers coverage group. Moss and Welker figure to benefit most when Cassel puts in the air, and Gaffney and Faulk are decent flex plays. The Patriots defense and kicker Stephen Gostkowski are solid options this week as well.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Given the way the offense has performed of late, it is now more possible than ever to buy the Patriots as a potential playoff team. Cassel and his receivers are beginning to show some real chemistry, and that is bound to serve the team well over the crucial final month. That said, the Steelers defense figures to control this one. Pittsburgh has been dominant in all phases on that side of the ball, and will put enough pressure on Cassel to make his relative inexperience shine through. The Steelers won't run away and hide in this one because their offense isn't good enough to do so, but the defense will make enough big plays to score a road victory.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Steelers 20, Patriots 16
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While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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