11/28/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This Sunday's game between the Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers was supposed to be a matchup of one team squarely in the playoff mix and the other struggling to pick up wins. That's turned out to be exactly the case, only the roles have been reversed.
Thought to be in the first year of an extensive rebuilding process, the Falcons enter this post-Thanksgiving interconference encounter with realistic visions of a postseason berth. The Chargers, on the other hand, are heading into the season's stretch run with their string of two consecutive AFC West championships in serious jeopardy after suffering losses in four of their last five games.
Atlanta's 7-4 record under rookie head coach Mike Smith, already a three-win improvement over last season's Michael Vick-fallout-fueled debacle, has landed the surprising club just one game out of first place in the well-stocked NFC South as well as a three-way deadlock for the NFC's final Wild Card spot with five weeks remaining in the regular season. What's even more ironic about the Falcons' sudden resurgence is that a Chargers' castoff has been one of the key contributors to the team's rise to respectability.
Running back Michael Turner spent his first four NFL seasons in the enormous shadow of the great LaDainian Tomlinson before leaving San Diego via free agency following the conclusion of the 2007 campaign. The powerfully-built 26- year-old signed with the Falcons in March for a long-awaited opportunity to be a feature back, and has proven without any doubts he has what it takes to handle such an important role.
While Turner, whose 13 rushing touchdowns and 1,088 yards rank first and third, respectively, among league backs, has flourished in his new surroundings, Tomlinson is enduring the most difficult season of his eight- year career. The 2006 NFL MVP's dramatic dip in production is one of a host of reasons why the Chargers, a team that has put together double-digit wins in three of the last four seasons, have slumped to a 4-7 record and are in danger of missing out on the postseason fray.
Hope does still remain for San Diego, however, thanks to a wasted opportunity by AFC West front-runner Denver in last week's action. With the Broncos being handed a head-scratching one-sided home loss to punchless Oakland this past Sunday, the Chargers stayed just two games behind in the division race following their last-second 23-20 defeat to red-hot Indianapolis in Week 12.
Atlanta's playoff fortunes may hinge on how the young squad handles a challenging stretch of games that begins with Sunday's test at Qualcomm Stadium. The Falcons then travel to New Orleans for an important divisional tilt before hosting NFC South co-leader Tampa Bay in Week 15.
SERIES HISTORY
The Falcons are 6-1 in their all-time series with San Diego, and have won four straight since a Chargers road victory during the 1988 season. Atlanta was a 21-20 home winner when the teams last met, in 2004, and were 14-3 winners when they last visited San Diego in 1997. Atlanta is 3-0 in series road games all-time.
San Diego head coach Norv Turner is 0-2 in his career against the Falcons, losing games to Atlanta while with the Redskins in 1994 and the Raiders in 2004. Smith will be meeting both Turner and the Chargers for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL
Atlanta's opponents have gone into every game knowing that the Falcons will be attempting to run the football down their throats, yet few have been able to slow down a physical ground attack that has amassed the second-most rushing yards in the league (151.5 ypg). Any concerns that Turner (1088 rushing yards, 13 TD, 4 receptions) would be running out of gas in his first season as a starter were erased last weekend, when the offseason acquisition bullied a quality Carolina defense for 117 yards on 24 carries and tied a club record with four rushing touchdowns to key the Falcons' 45-28 home win over the Panthers. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has deftly mixed in speedster Jerious Norwood (394 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 3 total TD) as a drastic change of pace to the bruising Turner, with very positive results.
Turner's former team has been solid but unspectacular in defending the run this season, having allowed an average of 103.9 rushing yards per game (15th overall) and 4.1 yards per attempt. The Chargers do possess a three-time Pro Bowl participant in the middle of their 3-4 look in nose tackle Jamal Williams (36 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who's coming off a dominating 10-tackle, one-sack performance against the Colts. The massive 11th-year veteran's skill at tying up blockers often frees up Stephen Cooper (58 tackles, 1.5 sacks), as the active linebacker is averaging better than eight stops per week from his inside spot. San Diego should have its regular front seven at full strength to take on Atlanta's running game, as starting end Luis Castillo (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is expected to play after sitting out last week's loss with a groin strain.
The Chargers' season-long problems on defense have been an inability to stop the pass and a constant struggle to force turnovers, one of the team's strong points during last year's 11-win campaign. San Diego led the NFL with 30 interceptions in 2007 but has garnered a mere seven this season, while a sporadic pass rush has also played a role in the unit having yielded a league- worst 265.5 yards per game through the air. Outside linebackers Jyles Tucker (25 tackles, 4 sacks) and Shaun Phillips (53 tackles, 4 sacks) have had their moments, but neither has been able to duplicate the presence of quarterback terrorizer Shawne Merriman since the perennial All-Pro went down to a season- ending knee injury in the season opener. That in turn has made cornerbacks Quentin Jammer (70 tackles, 2 INT, 17 PD) and Antonio Cromartie (54 tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD) more susceptible in coverage.
Another productive afternoon from Turner would ease the pressure off rookie quarterback Matt Ryan (2418 passing yards, 11 TD, 6 INT), who's had troubles at times on the road during an otherwise stellar debut season. Five of Ryan's six interceptions this year have come in away games, and the fresh-faced triggerman is completing only 54 percent of his throws in visiting venues. The 23-year-old has gotten good support from an improved corps of receivers headlined by playmaker Roddy White (62 receptions, 973 yards, 6 TD), who's on the verge of a second straight 1,000-yard season. Possession-type Michael Jenkins (33 receptions, 3 TD) has put forth a solid year as well and was rewarded with a four-year contract extension on Tuesday, while promising rookie Harry Douglas (16 receptions) stepped up his play in last week's big win over the Panthers. The third-round draft choice not only had 92 yards on four catches, but contributed a 61-yard punt return touchdown and also scored on an end-around.
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
One of the few bright spots in San Diego's disappointing season has been the play of quarterback Philip Rivers (2806 passing yards, 23 TD, 10 INT), who's kept the offense moving along despite a running game that too many times has been non-existent. The fifth-year pro has already surpassed his previous career high with 23 touchdown strikes, a number which leads the league, while his 103.3 passer rating is also best among NFL signal-callers. Rivers nearly engineered a comeback win over the Colts last Sunday by compiling 288 yards and two scores on 24-of-31 passing and is the unquestioned leader of an attack that ranks seventh overall in passing yards (245.9 ypg). His go-to guy remains four-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates (43 receptions, 6 TD), the team's leader in catches and touchdown grabs, with hulking wide receiver Vincent Jackson (39 receptions, 703 yards, 5 TD) the primary deep threat. Veteran wideout Chris Chambers (25 receptions, 5 TD) seems to be finally recovered from an ankle sprain that cost him a couple of games earlier in the year, as he recorded a season-best six catches for 61 yards against Indianapolis.
Tomlinson (770 rushing yards, 39 receptions, 6 total TD), dogged by a nagging turf toe injury since September, had an encouraging showing as well in last week's setback. The star running back came through with 84 yards on 21 carries against the Colts' suspect rushing defense, his best total since an 105-yard effort versus New Orleans in Week 8. Tomlinson is still averaging a mediocre 3.8 yards per attempt on the season, although he's been a factor as a receiver out of the backfield, while the Chargers as a team stand just 25th in the league in rushing offense (95.5 ypg).
While San Diego has hardly been proficient at running the ball, the Falcons haven't been adept at stopping it. Atlanta is permitting 120.9 yards per game on the ground (21st overall) and a poor 4.9 yards an attempt, while Carolina's DeAngelo Williams needed just 19 totes to gain 101 yards on the team last weekend. Things don't figure to improve down the stretch, considering accomplished run-stuffing tackle Grady Jackson (19 tackles, 1 sack) has a probable four-game suspension looming for testing positive for a banned diuretic. His pending absence would create a greater challenge for linebackers Curtis Lofton (67 tackles, 1 sack) and Keith Brooking (59 tackles) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (64 tackles, 1 INT) to prevent opponents from having success running up the middle.
Rivers should be able to find open spots in an Atlanta defense that allowed the previously-slumping Jake Delhomme to throw for 295 yards and zero interceptions during last Sunday's battle with the Panthers. The Falcons rank only 23rd overall against the pass (230.7 ypg) and have often failed to come up with big plays on the road, as only two of the defense's nine interceptions this year have occurred in the team's five away tilts. Atlanta does have one of the game's premier pass-rushing ends in John Abraham (28 tackles, 12 sacks), and the three-time Pro Bowl honoree will need to be constantly in Rivers' face on Sunday to help out a young set of cornerbacks. The Falcons have had trouble creating pressure from other members of the defense, although reserve end Chauncey Davis (25 tackles, 2 sacks) did have two sacks of Delhomme last week.
FANTASY FOCUS
Plenty of attractive fantasy options exist in this matchup between two dangerous offenses and a pair of shaky defenses, with Rivers the most appealing of the bunch. The San Diego quarterback has thrown for 13 touchdowns and averaged 275 passing yards in five Qualcomm Stadium games this year, and should be able to build on those totals without much resistance. On the flip side, Ryan's numbers on the road have been noticeably worse than at home. That still doesn't eliminate the rookie from starting consideration against a brutal Chargers' pass defense, but there is some risk involved. A big day for Rivers likely means the same for Gates and Vincent Jackson, so both should be used without hesitation. Turner has developed into a bona fide No. 1 fantasy back and is now a must-play every week, while teammate White has become a reliable source of points as well and makes an excellent choice at wide receiver. One of these days, Tomlinson is going to have one of those games that showed why he was the top overall pick in many preseason drafts. Start him on Sunday in the hopes that it comes sooner rather than later.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Although Atlanta has been the most consistent of these two teams and will be coming in with a jolt of confidence, the Chargers are the more desperate club and will be treating Sunday's outing like a playoff game. Don't forget that San Diego went toe-to-toe with heavyweights Pittsburgh and Indianapolis the last two weeks before being edged out in both contests. While the Falcons are clearly on the upswing, they're not at that level just yet. Rivers has played like an MVP candidate at home all year long, and there isn't much evidence to suggest that the Falcons will be able to prevent the determined quarterback from another prolific day in front of the Qualcomm Stadium crowd. For one afternoon at least, the Chargers will look like the team everyone had on their short list of Super Bowl contenders by putting together one of their most complete performances of this season.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chargers 31, Falcons 20
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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