11/28/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Christmas comes a few weeks early for the suddenly-surging Indianapolis Colts, who will try to extend their season-high winning streak to five games this Sunday on the road against the struggling Cleveland Browns.
The Colts remained in wild-card contention with last Sunday's nail-biting 23-20 road victory over the San Diego Chargers, improving to 7-4 thanks to clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard field goal as time expired.
Indianapolis, which opened the 2008 season with an uncharacteristic 3-4 mark, is starting to build confidence, and that spells doom for opposing teams. Even though they're still three games behind the 10-1 Tennessee Titans in the AFC South standings, the Colts have a chance to extend their current winning streak to seven straight games with upcoming matchups with Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit. The three opposing teams have a combined total of five wins.
Head coach Tony Dungy likes where his team is headed and has confidence that Indianapolis can go into tough places and win. Dungy and company are currently in control of the No. 5 seed in the AFC and wrap up a brief two-game road trip in Cleveland. The Colts are 4-2 away from brand new Lucas Oil Stadium this season.
Cleveland entered this season with much optimism after posting 10 wins a year ago. Quarterback Derek Anderson had a Pro Bowl campaign in 2007 and signed a big contract in the offseason, but was recently relegated to backup for the Browns, who invested their trust in young signal-caller Brady Quinn. But now Quinn is out for the season with a fractured right index finger, and after a visit with noted sports surgeon doctor James Andrews on Tuesday, it was determined that he should shut it down for the rest of the season to avoid further damage.
The Browns have dropped three of their last four games, including last Sunday's 16-6 loss to the Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Stadium, and are now pretty much out of the AFC playoff picture. Neither Quinn nor Anderson could get anything started offensively as the Browns fell to 1-5 as the host this season.
Head coach Romeo Crennel will have to get his players fired up over the next few weeks if he plans on finishing the year with a respectable record. That will be a stretch for the Browns, with the Colts, Titans, Eagles and Steelers on the remaining five-game schedule. Cincinnati is also on the upcoming slate.
SERIES HISTORY
Cleveland owns a 13-11 edge in its all-time regular season series with Indianapolis, but has lost its last four such matchups, including a 13-6 defeat in the most recent meeting, at the RCA Dome in 2005. The Colts were 9-6 winners when the last visited Cleveland in Week 1 of the 2003 campaign. The Browns last defeated Indy in 1994 on the road, and last defeated the team in C-Town in 1994.
In addition to the regular season series, the clubs have met four times in the postseason, including a Cleveland win in the 1964 NFL Championship and a then- Baltimore Colts victory in the 1968 NFL Championship. The most recent postseason meeting between the clubs was a 38-21 Cleveland win a 1987 AFC Divisional Playoff.
Dungy is 3-0 all-time against the Browns, with all three of those wins coming in Indianapolis. Crennel is 0-1 against both Dungy and the Colts as a head coach.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
Colts eight-time Pro Bowl quarterback Peyton Manning (2,823 passing yards, 19 TD, 10 INT) has been on fire during the four-game winning streak, with nine touchdown passes to just one interception over that span. Manning passed for 255 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in Sunday's win at San Diego. The veteran quarterback is not putting up the type of numbers he has in the past, but has been efficient enough to keep his team in playoff contention. He aims for his sixth straight game with two touchdown passes. Indianapolis is in the top 10 in the league in passing offense (249.5 ypg) and will try to stretch the field with top receivers Reggie Wayne (58 receptions, 824 yards, 5 TD) and Marvin Harrison (45 receptions, 4 TD). Wayne leads the team in catches and receiving yards, but had just two receptions for 34 yards against the Chargers. Slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez (46 receptions, 3 TD) contributes as well and ended with six receptions for 95 yards and a score last weekend.
Cleveland just surrendered 271 passing yards to a backup quarterback over the weekend and is near the bottom in defending opposing aerial attacks in 2008. If Texans second-string quarterback Sage Rosenfels can almost throw for 300 yards and a score on the Browns, what kind of day lies ahead for Manning? The Browns were able to get interceptions from safeties Brodney Pool (43 tackles, sack, 3 INT) and Sean Jones (37 tackles, 1 INT) against Houston. Pool is tied with cornerback Eric Wright (47 tackles, 3 INT) for the team lead in interceptions, and has two picks in the past three games. Cornerback Brandon McDonald (50 tackles, 2 INT) and Pool both chipped in seven tackles Sunday. Wayne, Harrison, Gonzalez and tight end Dallas Clark will have enormous games if the Cleveland defensive backfield breaks down early and often.
Colts running back Joseph Addai (457 rushing yards, 5 TD) had a solid all- around effort at the Chargers, gaining 70 yards on 16 carries and 31 yards on a team-high seven receptions. Addai had his best outing of the season a week earlier versus Houston, when he ran for a season-high 105 yards and a touchdown. Indy is one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL and only ran for 91 yards in its recent win. It will face a Cleveland bunch that is one of the worst in the league against the run (145.9 ypg). Addai, who matches up well against the Browns, will be replaced by Dominic Rhodes when he needs a breather. Rhodes (359 rushing yards, 3 TD) had 21 yards on seven touches along with 21 receiving yards and a score on five catches against the Chargers. The offensive line lost center Jeff Saturday to a calf injury in the San Diego game, and he is expected to miss the next three-to-four weeks. Fellow lineman Ryan Lilja, who has yet to play this year due to a knee problem, is expected to undergo season-ending surgery soon.
Browns linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (45 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) recorded the team's only sack in Sunday's loss to Houston. Fellow linebackers D'Qwell Jackson (108 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Andra Davis (57 tackles, 1 INT) will assist the front line of defense against Addai and Rhodes. Linebacker Alex Hall (21 tackles, 3 sacks) is tied for first among AFC rookies with three sacks. Defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (52 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and end Corey Williams (34 tackles, 0.5 sacks) watched Texans rookie running back Steve Slaton rush for 73 yards on 21 carries last weekend, and can not afford to allow Indy's ground attack to keep the defense's focus off of Manning. If Addai is able to establish the run, Cleveland will be in for a very long afternoon in front of its home fans.
WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL
Quinn (518 passing yards, 2 TD, 2 INT) was picked off twice in crucial situations on Sunday and threw for 94 yards on 8-of-18 passing. Now the former Notre Dame star will now have to battle Anderson (1,505 passing yards, 9 TD, 8 INT) again for a starting job next season. According to Crennel, the Browns haven't placed Quinn on injured reserve and the team plans to sign free-agent quarterback Richard Bartel to the practice squad. The Browns are rated near the bottom in the NFL in passing yards despite having a top tight end and a superstar receiver. Tight end Kellen Winslow (40 receptions, 3 TD) had only one catch for 11 yards last week, but is still a threat across the middle and on short yardage plays. He has just four catches for 51 yards in his last two games. Wideout Braylon Edwards (40 receptions, 3 TD) had five receptions for 85 yards on Sunday, but hasn't reached the end zone in three straight weeks. He had two dropped passes over the weekend, one of which was in the end zone. Both Winlsow and Edwards are tied for the team lead with 40 catches apiece. Return man and wide receiver Joshua Cribbs will be the emergency quarterback behind Anderson and backup Ken Dorsey for Sunday's tilt.
The Colts allowed 274 passing yards to the Chargers and are giving up 197.1 yards per game through the air this season. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers was able to throw for 288 yards and a pair of touchdowns with no picks Sunday night, but Indy was able to sneak away with a victory. Defensive end Robert Mathis (39 tackles, 6.5 sacks) had 1 1/2 sacks in the game and will team up with fellow end Dwight Freeney (19 tackles, 7 sacks) to apply pressure on the quarterback. Freeney leads the team with seven sacks, but had just one tackle last Sunday. He has four sacks in the past three games, however. Indianapolis welcomed back cornerback Kelvin Hayden (23 tackles, 1 INT), who missed the past six games because of injury, against San Diego, and he ended with six tackles. Safety Melvin Bullitt (58 tackles, 4 INT) played again in place of All-Pro Bob Sanders and made eight stops over the weekend. Bullitt leads the team with four interceptions and will help out the secondary against Edwards, Winslow and Stallworth. Indy may get Sanders (knee) back in the lineup, as he is listed as questionable for Sunday.
Browns bruising running back Jamal Lewis (716 rushing yards, 4 TD) will be looking to plow through Indy's poor-rated run defense and is 179 rushing yards short of 10,000 in his career. Lewis recorded 58 yards on 10 touches against Houston and is still searching for his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season. He has no less than 10 carries in a game and has gone two consecutive weeks without a touchdown. Lewis, who also fumbled on Sunday, is reportedly unhappy with Browns offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and his play-calling scheme. Egos must be checked at the door for this matchup, however. Lewis is fortunate to run behind tackle Joe Thomas and guard Eric Steinbach. He averages 84.3 yards per game in three career appearances against the Colts.
Lewis is expected to run wild on the Colts' mediocre defense on Sunday, but will have to do it against linebackers Gary Brackett (97 tackles) and Freddy Keiaho (78 tackles). Brackett leads the team in stops and finished with eight in Week 12, while Keiaho led the squad with 10 tackles against the Chargers. San Diego was able to muster 120 yards on the ground, with LaDainian Tomlinson finishing with 84 yards on 21 touches. Colts defensive tackles Eric Foster (29 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and Keyunta Dawson (38 tackles) are the first line of defense and will try to clog Lewis' running lanes. Foster had three tackles and a half-sack on Sunday, but Dawson registered only one stop on the afternoon.
FANTASY FOCUS
Indianapolis showcases a boatload of fantasy talent this week. Manning and Addai will shine for sure against a weak Cleveland defense, while Wayne is due for another strong outing on Sunday. It's a gamble to start Harrison, Clark or Gonzalez, since it appears that Manning is finding a new target every week. The odds are in the Colts' favors that their offensive players will have a strong showing. As for the Browns, Winlsow, Edwards and Lewis are worthy of starting nods once again. Anderson should only be used in an emergency situation unless owners are desperate and strapped by injuries or ineptitude.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Colts are rolling right now and can't afford a letdown this week against the Browns on the road. They finally made some ground in the AFC South standings following Tennessee's loss to the Jets last Sunday, and are right in the heat of battle for a Wild Card spot in the conference. Manning will lead Indianapolis to its fifth straight win this weekend and earn back the admiration from the media and fans. Dungy would enjoy nothing more than to start this three-game stretch against overmatched teams in convincing fashion. Crennel, meanwhile, will most likely soon be updating his resume after the Browns are sent to their eighth loss of the season.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Browns 20
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In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
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