Carolina Panthers 2008 Season Preview

Football Betting Lines

08/26/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The summer months can get mighty sweltering in Spartanburg, South Carolina, home of the Carolina Panthers' training camp, which should have the team well-prepped for the upcoming 2008 season.

The heat is clearly on the Panthers after two straight seasons of unmet expectations that followed their strong run to the 2005 NFC Championship Game. And the hottest seats belong to head coach John Fox and general manager Marty Hurney, whose six-year tenure together has produced a pair of hugely successful campaigns sprinkled in with four mediocre ones.

Fox and Hurney were granted a stay of execution from ultra-loyal team owner Jerry Richardson following last year's 7-9 disappointment. However, a third consecutive season of missing out on the playoffs could very well have the Panthers patriarch casting a wandering eye, perhaps towards ex-Steelers head coach and North Carolina resident Bill Cowher.

The pressure appears to have gotten to the players as well. This year's camp session was marred by a nasty practice fight between cornerback Ken Lucas and volatile wide receiver Steve Smith. Lucas was left with a broken nose as a result of the incident, Smith a team-issued suspension that will put Carolina's best offensive weapon on the sidelines for the first two regular- season games.

In striving to return the franchise to its glory years, Fox and Hurney have attempted to recreate the formula that brought the Panthers to their only Super Bowl in 2003. That Carolina squad nearly reached the summit on the strength of a suffocating defense and a smash-mouth ground attack led by bruising running back Stephen Davis.

The Panthers' first two moves of last April's draft revealed that philosophy. Carolina grabbed 235-pound running back Jonathan Stewart, a Davis clone, with its opening-round selection, then traded up to snare University of Pittsburgh offensive tackle Jeff Otah, a raw but powerful mauler, with the 19th overall pick.

Carolina discarded its 2009 first-round choice to Philadelphia to obtain Otah, another clear indicator that the onus is on winning now.

The Panthers even brought back one of the main contributors to their 2003 Super Bowl march as part of a flurry of offseason free-agent acquisitions, signing wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad -- the franchise's all-time receptions leader -- away from Chicago to fill a glaring need.

Fox and Hurney seem confident that Muhammad's noticeable decline in production during his three-year stay in the Windy City was more a case of the Bears' shoddy quarterback play than the 35-year-old's advancing age. They better be right, because the Panthers sorely need someone to alleviate the double and triple-teaming that the dynamic Smith received on a regular basis last year.

Muhammad isn't the only veteran being counted on for a return to form. In order for Carolina to make its way back to the top of the NFC South heap, man- child defensive end Julius Peppers has to bounce back from an inexplicably unproductive 2007, while starting quarterback Jake Delhomme and his surgically-repaired elbow must be able to hold up over the rigors of a full season.

Delhomme's season-ending injury in Week 3 was a key element in Carolina's downfall, with the team being forced to go through a revolving door of signal- callers that included bringing a 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde out of retirement. The Panthers went just 5-8 in the 13 games Delhomme wasn't under center.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2008 edition of the Carolina Panthers, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2007 RECORD: 7-9 (t2nd, NFC South)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2005, lost to Seattle, 34-14, in NFC Championship

COACH (RECORD): John Fox (51-45 in six seasons with Panthers, 51-45 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jeff Davidson

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Trgovac

OFFENSIVE STAR: Steve Smith, WR (87 receptions, 1002 yards, 7 TD)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Julius Peppers, DE (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 14th rushing, 29th passing, t26th scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 18th rushing, 17th passing, 15th scoring

KEY ADDITIONS: RB Jonathan Stewart (1st Round, Oregon), RB LaBrandon Toefield (from Jaguars), WR Muhsin Muhammad (from Bears), WR D.J. Hackett (from Seahawks), T Jeff Otah (1st Round, Pittsburgh), G Toniu Fonoti (from Falcons), G Keydrick Vincent (from Cardinals), G Milford Brown (from Rams), DE Tyler Brayton (from Raiders), DT Darwin Walker (from Bears), LB Landon Johnson (from Bengals), LB Dan Connor (3rd Round, Penn State), CB Ricardo Colclough (from Browns), CB Charles Godfrey (3rd Round, Iowa), S Terrence Holt (from Cardinals)

KEY DEPARTURES: QB David Carr (to Giants), QB Vinny Testaverde (retired), RB DeShaun Foster (to 49ers), WR Drew Carter (to Raiders), WR Keary Colbert (to Broncos), TE Christian Fauria (not tendered), G Mike Wahle (to Seahawks), OL Justin Hartwig (to Steelers), DE Mike Rucker (retired), DT Kindal Moorehead (to Falcons), DT Kris Jenkins (to Jets), LB Terrence Melton (not tendered), LB Dan Morgan (to Saints/retired), S Marquand Manuel (to Broncos), S Deke Cooper (to Falcons)

QB: Delhomme (624 passing yards in '07) was off to a terrific start prior to getting hurt, with the 33-year-old tossing eight touchdown passes against just one interception, and his value to the Panthers became evident with the way the offense stalled following his absence. It's unclear whether the gusty Cajun's arm strength has returned, however, as the team has been cautious with him during the preseason. It's therefore hard to predict Delhomme's effectiveness as a passer, although his grit and leadership in the huddle can't be questioned. The subpar play of Testaverde and the since-departed David Carr eventually led to a late-season opportunity for rookie Matt Moore (730 passing yards, 3 TD, 5 INT), and the undrafted free agent displayed impressive poise and solid decision-making in his three starts, in which Carolina won twice. That performance has garnered Moore the backup job heading into this season, and possibly a chance for more playing time if Delhomme can't hold up. The Panthers claimed Moore off waivers after projected No. 3 quarterback Brett Basanez was placed on injured reserve after suffering a preseason wrist injury. The ex-Northwestern standout is back healthy to assume the title as primary clipboard holder.

RB: The Panthers plan to enter the season with 2006 first-round choice DeAngelo Williams (717 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 5 total TD) as the main ball carrier, but given Fox's affinity for big backs, it would hardly be shocking if Stewart is receiving the bulk of the work by October. The rookie's quest to start has been slowed somewhat by a college turf toe injury that required surgery, but he should at least make an impact in short-yardage situations. Williams has earned the right to audition for feature-back duties after showing well as the fumble-prone DeShaun Foster's understudy the last two years. He averaged five yards per attempt in 2007 and had a 121-yard, two- touchdown effort in a season-ending win at Tampa Bay. Nick Goings (52 rushing yards, 10 receptions, 1 TD), a Fox favorite and special teams captain, is the favorite to stick as the third running back, while unheralded fullback Brad Hoover (10 receptions) was retained with a three-year contract in February.

WR/TE: Delhomme's injury also significantly impacted Smith's (87 receptions, 1002 yards, 7 TD) ability as a game-breaker, with the diminutive wideout averaging a career-low 11.5 yards per catch as the constant focus of the opposing game plan last season. So did the inconsistent play of counterparts Drew Carter and Keary Colbert, both of whom are now earning paychecks in other cities. That triggered the offseason signings of Muhammad (40 receptions, 3 TD) and the injury-prone D.J. Hackett (32 receptions, 3 TD), who was on his way towards a breakout season with Seattle before missing 10 games with a severe ankle sprain. He's younger and more explosive than his fellow newcomer, but Muhammad is more familiar with the offense and a superior player in the red zone. Both still figure to open the year as starters with Smith suspended, provided Hackett makes it back from a toe injury that's hindered him in camp. Former USC star Dwayne Jarrett (6 receptions) was expected to be in the mix as well, but immaturity and a questionable work ethic has stalled the second-year man's progress. He's currently running behind practice-squad promotee Jason Carter on the depth chart. Carolina got a solid 2007 out of tight end Jeff King, whose 46 catches ranked second on the team last year, while the athletic Dante Rosario (6 receptions, 2 TD) showed promise when given an expanded role near the end of his rookie campaign. The Panthers also drafted Gary Barnidge, who played in a pro-style offense at Louisville, in the fifth round of April's draft to be the third tight end. Another second-year wide receiver, Ryne Robinson, has a secure roster spot as the team's main return man.

OL: No area of the team has undergone as much offseason retooling as the offensive line, where only one player -- second-year center Ryan Kalil -- will be in the same position that started last year's finale. Veterans Justin Hartwig and Mike Wahle were cut loose over the winter, while the right side will have an entirely new look with Otah stepping right in at tackle and free- agent pickup Keydrick Vincent, a former starter in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, slated to take over at right guard. Otah's insertion shifts the Panthers' best lineman, Jordan Gross, to left tackle to serve as Delhomme's blind-side protector. Travelle Wharton, who had previously held that distinction, has in turn been moved to left guard. Carolina also brought in seasoned widebodies Toniu Fonoti and Milford Brown (from St. Louis) as interior reserves that should fit in well with the club's emphasis on a power run game. Holdovers Geoff Hantgartner and Jeremy Bridges also have starting experience and are valued for their versatility.

DL: One of the real mysteries of 2007 was the week-to-week vanishing act of Peppers (38 tackles, 3 forced fumbles). The three-time Pro Bowl honoree had delivered double-digit sacks in four of his first five NFL seasons, but mustered a paltry 2 1/2 last year. That prompted Fox to shift his star end to the right side, where he'll be matched up against smaller tackles during camp, and Peppers has shown glimpses of his usual dominating self in preseason play. He's also entering a contract year, so there should be plenty of motivation for a rebound. Finding a pass-rushing complement to Peppers figures to be more of a challenge, since Carolina ranked next-to-last in the league with 23 sacks a year ago. The candidates at left end are Oakland castoff Tyler Brayton (11 tackles) and inexperienced sophomore Charles Johnson, both of whom are regarded more as run stoppers. There's also a void to fill at one tackle spot after the team shipped former All-Pro Kris Jenkins to the Jets in February. Damione Lewis (29 tackles, 3.5 sacks), the intended fill-in, is a good penetrator but isn't as skilled in defending the run. On the other hand, tackle Maake Kemoeatu (46 tackles), the returnee at left tackle, is a 345- pound load who specializes in clogging the middle. Experienced depth along the interior was provided by the signing of ninth-year vet Darwin Walker (17 tackles, 1 sack with Chicago), while ex-practice squad member Gary Gibson and rookie sixth-round selection Nick Hayden may also figure in the rotation at tackle.

LB: Fox generally has been hesitant to throw rookies immediately into the fray, but Jon Beason proved to be too good to keep on the bench. The Panthers' first-round selection in 2007 started every game as a rookie last season and racked up a whopping 140 tackles, while looking like a fixture in the middle for years to come. Outside starters Thomas Davis (87 tackles, 3 sacks) and Na'il Diggs (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks) return, but both need to make more big plays. That problem may have been corrected when the two players swapped positions in training camp, with the former college safety Davis moving to the weakside to take advantage of his speed. Diggs is being pushed at the strong side by offseason addition Landon Johnson (109 tackles, 1 sack), a starter in Cincinnati who can play any of the linebacker spots. Rookie Dan Connor was taken in the third round of this year's draft following a decorated career at Penn State and will begin his pro career as Beason's backup. The Butkus Award finalist will also contribute on special teams, where his former Nittany Lion teammate Tim Shaw impressed as a rookie in 2007 and journeyman Donte' Curry (10 tackles) has excelled in during his seven NFL seasons.

DB: The Panthers have enjoyed continuity at cornerback over the years, as the tandem of Lucas (61 tackles, 12 PD) and Chris Gamble (47 tackles) have started together since 2005. The duo only combined for a meager three interceptions last year, although that low figure may be partly attributed to the front seven's inability to generate consistent pressure. Third-year performer Richard Marshall (89 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PD) may actually be the best cover man of the trio and sees plenty of work in the team's nickel sets. Carolina found itself in a potential quandary at strong safety when projected starter Nate Salley went down with a season-ending knee injury during last year's camp, but Hurney engineered a late-preseason trade with Chicago for Chris Harris (97 tackles, 1 INT) to fill the void. It turned out to be a terrific move, as the 26-year-old led the NFL with eight forced fumbles and was a physical presence in the box. For his efforts, Harris was rewarded with a new five-year contract in the offseason. The newcomer in the secondary is rookie Charles Godfrey, a hard-hitting third-round pick out of Iowa who is expected to start immediately at free safety. As an insurance policy, the Panthers signed ex-Arizona starter Terrence Holt (69 tackles). The Panthers also brought in former Steeler and Cleveland Brown Ricardo Colclough to be the fourth cornerback, with second- year safety Quinton Teal (19 tackles) and corner Dante Wesley the favorites to round out the reserve ranks.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Kicker John Kasay, the lone remaining member from the Panthers' inaugural season of 1995, seems to get better with age. The 18th-year veteran has converted 87 percent (48-of-55) of his field goal attempts over the last two seasons, including 6-of-9 from beyond 50 yards. The 38-year-old has regressed on kickoffs, though, so there's a good chance Fox will keep the strong-legged Rhys Lloyd on the roster to handle those chores. There's also few worries at punter with Jason Baker (44.2 avg.), a Pro Bowl alternate in two of the last three years. Robinson did a credible job on returns last season, averaging 23 yards on kicks and 8.7 on punts, and could very well better those numbers in his second season. Stewart, an accomplished kick returner at Oregon, could help out there as well. Long snapper Jason Kyle owns 162 career games of experience and lends stability at the overlooked position.

PROGNOSIS: The Panthers have attributed last season's shortcoming to Delhomme's injury and Peppers' off year, and the organization is hanging its collective hats that return to health and form for both players will push Carolina to the top of a division littered with teams that have questions to answer. Neither scenario appears to be a foregone conclusion, however. Delhomme's tender elbow is indeed a legitimate concern, considering the success rate of quarterbacks attempting to come back from his procedure isn't very good. Peppers should be much more of a disruptive force than he was in 2007, but the freakish defensive end is still going to need help from his linemates in order to maximize his enormous potential. The defense should be able to keep the Panthers in games, but probably isn't good enough to win them alone if the offense sinks to last year's level of futility. Although that doesn't appear to be the case, it's also unrealistic to expect a team that has a quarterback with a murky health status, a questionable offensive line and only a handful of playmakers to suddenly transform into some sort of juggernaut. The Panthers have tried their best to change with their significant overhauling of the roster. But the end result may show that they've still pretty much stayed the same.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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