A-Rod tries once again for 600th home run in Cleveland
Baseball Betting Lines
07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Alex Rodriguez still on the verge of reaching one of baseball's most exclusive milestones, the New York Yankees will wrap up a four-game series with the Cleveland Indians tonight at Progressive Field.
Rodriguez remains one home run shy of becoming only the seventh player in major league history to hit 600 for his career. The superstar third baseman has now gone six games and 26 at-bats since belting No. 599 in a 10-4 win over Kansas City on July 22.
The three-time MVP still made a significant contribution to the Yankees' 8-0 rout of the Indians last night, going 2-for-5 and knocking in his team's first run with a first-inning single.
Robinson Cano did deliver a solo home run for New York, while Mark Teixeira and Brett Gardner each went 2-for-4 with two RBI to help back a strong effort from starting pitcher A.J. Burnett.
Burnett (9-8) scattered seven hits and struck out seven Cleveland batters over the first 6 1/3 innings to win his second straight start and lead the Yankees to their sixth victory in their past eight contests. New York owns the best record in the majors at 64-36, two games better than fellow American League East member Tampa Bay.
"He was locating his fastball to the corners as well as I've ever seen it," Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner said of Burnett. "Then late in the count he was throwing the curveball and getting some strikeouts. He was good [Wednesday]."
Fausto Carmona (10-8) was far less effective for Cleveland, as the 2010 All- Star was hammered for seven runs and 10 hits before being lifted after only 2 2/3 innings.
"I think the key for us was swinging at strikes," said Rodriguez. "After the first two innings [Carmona] had 40-plus pitches. That's always a key for us is to make him throw as many pitches as we can. Even when we make outs, make productive outs."
Rodriguez will be taking his swings tonight off Mitch Talbot in the Cleveland rookie's second-ever encounter with the Yankees. The young right-hander was dealt a loss in an 11-2 road setback to New York on May 31 after allowing three runs over 6 1/3 innings, with Rodriguez coming through with an RBI single in two official at-bats against the Indians starter.
Talbot enters tonight's clash mired in a lengthy slump, as he's dropped five of six decisions since a surprising 7-4 beginning to the season and has posted a mediocre 5.01 ERA over his last seven starts. He served up two homers and was tagged for five runs in 5 2/3 innings of a home loss to Tampa Bay last Saturday, despite registering a career-best eight strikeouts.
The 26-year-old has recorded a respectable 4.08 ERA in his first season with the Indians, however. Talbot was acquired by Cleveland from the Rays in a trade this past winter.
New York will give Dustin Moseley his first start of the year tonight as the team searches for a temporary fill-in for the injured Andy Pettitte. The right-hander has made four relief appearances for the Yankees since being called up from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre earlier this month, including a excellent 4 2/3-inning stint against Kansas City on Saturday in which he yielded no runs and only a single hit.
Moseley took over in that game for Sergio Mitre, who was rocked for seven runs (five earned) and seven hits over the first 4 1/3 frames and sent to the bullpen as a result of that shaky showing.
The 28-year-old Moseley does have major-league starting experience, having begun 23 games during a four-year tenure with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim from 2006-09. He also has good lifetime numbers against Cleveland, sporting a 3-0 record with a 4.35 ERA in three starts and two relief outings versus the Tribe.
New York took three of four games from the Indians in a late-May series at Yankee Stadium and has prevailed in nine of the last 12 clashes between the teams. In their only visit to Cleveland last season, the Yankees won three of four tests from the Tribe.
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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